🌳 Army holds the line

TOP STORIES

Lebanese Army Stands Firm Near Khiam After Israeli Fire

• The Lebanese Army reinforced its position in Sarda, south of Khiam in the Marjayoun district, on Thursday—one day after Israeli troops and a tank advanced into Lebanese territory before withdrawing, and two days after Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese soldiers.
• The Lebanese Army Command issued a rare order to retaliate against Israeli fire, with Israel justifying its response by claiming Lebanese soldiers were setting up a post "without previous coordination"—a claim Beirut did not accept.
• UNIFIL confirmed Wednesday that the Lebanese Army has now redeployed to 165 positions in the South since the November 2024 ceasefire, calling it an "important" step toward full state authority over Lebanese territory.
• The standoff comes one week before a major donor conference in Paris on March 5 in support of the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces, and as Army Commander Rodolph Haykal pushes a 4-to-8-month disarmament plan covering the Litani-Awali corridor.

The backstory: Under the November 2024 ceasefire, Lebanon committed to deploying its army across the south and dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure there—a process Hezbollah publicly rejects beyond the southern zone.

Why it matters: The army's refusal to back down under Israeli fire is a rare and symbolically loaded assertion of Lebanese sovereignty—one that diplomats in Paris will be watching closely when they decide how much to fund next week.

Lebanon's Fuel Tax Legal Battle Puts Public Salaries at Risk

• Contrary to social media rumors, Lebanon's Conseil d'État (State Council) has not cancelled the government's 300,000 lira customs duty on gasoline—sources close to the file confirm the three legal challenges remain under judicial review.
• The stakes are high: the government linked fuel tax revenues directly to a public sector salary raise worth 6 months of additional pay, and the tax is projected to generate roughly $450 million of the raise's $800 million total cost.
• The legal challenges target not only the fuel duty itself but also Article 55 of the 2026 budget, which grants the Cabinet the right to legislate customs policy by decree—a significant constitutional question about executive overreach.

What to watch: If the Conseil d'État ultimately strikes down the fuel tax or Article 55, the government faces a brutal choice—find a new $450 million revenue source or claw back salary gains from hundreds of thousands of public workers.

Lebanese Avocados Are Quietly Winning Back Europe and the Gulf

• Lebanese avocado exports are surging this season, with Fadel Trading reporting "noticeably stronger and more structured" demand compared to last year, as buyers in the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and Gulf countries increasingly seek out Lebanese fruit for its taste and quality.
• The recovery follows wartime disruptions that hammered Lebanon's agricultural export logistics; this season, exporters shifted to structured weekly sea freight programs, with air freight reserved only for specific commercial needs, and freight costs have stabilized—though they remain above historical averages.
• Prices this season are firmer than last year, with well-graded Lebanese avocados holding stable price levels thanks to high dry matter and oil content; the export campaign runs through April 2026.

The bigger picture: Lebanon's avocado comeback is a small but telling sign that the country's agricultural exporters are rebuilding international confidence—one shipment at a time—even as the broader economy remains fragile.

QUICK HITS

• One year, no collapse: PM Nawaf Salam marked his first year in office saying his government "limited the collapse" and laid the foundation for state rebuilding, citing $180 million in U.S. military aid and a historic first: full Lebanese state control over the south, per LBCI. The cabinet reaffirmed it resigns automatically once a new parliament is elected.
• Safa out, questions in: Wafiq Safa's "resignation" from Hezbollah's Coordination and Liaison Unit is sending shockwaves—he reportedly clashed with Secretary-General Naim Qassem over surrendering the arsenal, and in an organization with rigid hierarchy, "leaving" is never quite what it seems.
• $400M tax, $400M gap: Lebanon's new gasoline tax is in effect and generating roughly $400 million annually—but public sector salary hikes cost $800 million, leaving the Finance Ministry scrambling for new revenues targeting luxury goods and customs evasion.
• Paragliding gets a rulebook: Lebanon's parliamentary Youth and Sports Committee convened to crack down on aerial sports clubs operating without licenses, recommending strict new safety standards after years of fatal accidents and what the committee called "administrative and technical lawlessness."
• Diaspora scam alert: Lebanese expats in Europe are being targeted by a cash-swap fraud: a stranger asks you to hand over real money abroad while promising your family in Lebanon gets paid—except the cash delivered back home turns out to be counterfeit.

INTERNATIONAL

Gaza's Economy Was Already on Life Support—The War Just Pulled the Plug

• Before October 2023, Gaza's unemployment rate stood at 50.2% and poverty at 69%, with more than 80% of its population already dependent on international aid—the result of 16 years of blockade that shrank the industrial base from 3,900 factories employing 35,000 workers in 2005 to just 195 factories with 1,700 workers by 2007, according to Daraj.
• Since the war began, the industrial sector has contracted by 94%, construction by 98%, and agricultural land by 87%—pushing unemployment to 80% and poverty above 95%, with 93% of bank branches destroyed.
• On the ground in Gaza this Ramadan, Al Jazeera reported that residents are navigating a fractured survival economy—using worn-out shekels, mobile payment apps with spotty connectivity, or buying groceries on credit—while cash brokers charge commissions of up to 50% to convert digital balances to cash.

The bigger picture: Analysts warn that international aid, however essential to survival, has structurally deepened dependency rather than building economic resilience—and that without a shift toward productive investment, Gaza's recovery will remain impossible.

German Court Orders Intelligence Agency to Drop AfD 'Extremist' Label—For Now

• A court in Cologne ruled Thursday that Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, must temporarily stop referring to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as "confirmed right-wing extremist," pending a final legal determination on whether the classification is lawful.
• The BfV had applied the highest of its three surveillance tiers to the AfD in May 2025; the court found evidence of potentially unconstitutional statements within the party—including calls to ban the Muslim call to prayer—but ruled that insufficient grounds existed to label the entire party extremist.
• The AfD is currently Germany's second-largest party in national polling, and its co-chair Alice Weidel called the ruling "a big win not just for the AfD, but for democracy," while Social Democrats said they remain committed to pursuing a full ban before Germany's constitutional court.

What to watch: The court gave no timeline for its final ruling, meaning the intelligence agency will continue monitoring the AfD at the second tier—"suspected" rather than "confirmed"—as regional elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate approach in March.

A Single Pill Could Transform HIV Treatment for Older Patients

• A clinical trial published February 25 in The Lancet found that a new once-daily pill combining bictegravir and lenacapavir (BIC/LEN) suppressed the HIV virus in approximately 96% of participants—matching the efficacy of complex multi-pill regimens that many long-term patients currently depend on.
• The trial, led by Professor Chloe Orkin of Queen Mary University of London, assembled the oldest-ever group for an HIV drug study, with an average participant age of 60 years and some participants in their 80s—a population that has been largely excluded from advances in HIV therapy due to early drug resistance.
• BIC/LEN also improved cholesterol levels among participants, a significant secondary benefit for older patients at cardiovascular risk; the drug is awaiting submission to regulators including the U.S. FDA and European Medicines Agency.

Zooming out: For the estimated millions of long-term HIV survivors worldwide whose treatment options have stagnated for decades, this pill represents the first genuine therapeutic advance tailored to their specific needs.

GHER HEK

• Beirut takes Venice: Six Lebanese-linked artists—including Joana Hadjithomas, Khalil Joreige, and Walid Raad—are featured in the 61st Venice Biennale (May 9–Nov. 22, 2026), with Lebanon's official pavilion showcasing Nabil Nahas's monumental 26-canvas, 45-meter frieze titled Don't Get Me Wrong at the Arsenale.
• 14 medals from Kinshasa: Students at the Lebanese School in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, won 14 medals—including 1 gold, 3 silver, and 10 bronze—at the international STEM Olympiad finals held in Italy, competing against roughly 38,000 students from institutions around the world.
• Doctor, lawyer, tango dancer: Dr. Hadia Haikal-Mukhtar, who left Lebanon at 18 and became one of Melbourne's only Arabic-speaking female doctors, shared her extraordinary story on SBS Australia's SEEN podcast—including her best advice for aging well: take up Argentinian tango.
• Shawarma lands in Maine: After a year of sold-out pop-ups, Levantine restaurant Shamee in Maine is opening a permanent location in downtown Bangor this spring—serving shawarma, falafel, hummus, and baklava in a storefront that sat empty for nearly a decade.

Have a wonderful Friday—yom el jum'a vibes only, go make it count.