🌳 Four month timeline

TOP STORIES

Lebanon Sets Four-Month Timeline for Hezbollah Disarmament Phase Two

• Information Minister Paul Morcos announced Lebanon's military needs at least four months to complete the second phase of dismantling Hezbollah's arsenals between the Litani and Awali rivers, about 40km south of Beirut.
• The timeline comes despite Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem calling the government's disarmament efforts a "grave sin" and rejecting any weapon surrender north of the Litani River, saying it serves "Israeli aggression."
• Cabinet sources revealed intensive diplomatic coordination preceded Monday's session, with President Aoun leading calls to Parliament Speaker Berri, PM Salam, and all political factions to ensure national consensus on the military's plan.
• The announcement follows Army Commander General Heikel's recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the US, where he received pressure to accelerate the process ahead of a crucial Paris conference supporting Lebanon's military on March 5.

Why it matters: Lebanon's diplomatic balancing act—satisfying international pressure while managing internal resistance—will determine whether the Paris donor conference proceeds and violence escalates.

Fifteen Indicted for Murder of Lebanese Man in Shatila Camp

• Mount Lebanon's Criminal Court indicted around 15 people for the October murder of 24-year-old Elio Abou Hanna, who was killed after taking a wrong turn into Shatila refugee camp following a night out in Badaro.
• Judicial sources revealed Abou Hanna was targeted by gunfire from two separate checkpoints—one run by drug traffickers who mistook him for a rival, and another operated by the Palestinian Security Commission trying to stop what they believed was a drug dealer.
• The charges include intentional homicide, forming an armed gang to commit crimes, and illegal weapons possession, with five suspects still at large and the Palestinian Security Commission chief under arrest.

The backstory: Shatila, one of Lebanon's most impoverished Palestinian refugee camps, has become a hub for drug trafficking networks that operate with limited state oversight.

Zooming out: The case highlights Lebanon's broader struggle to assert state authority in Palestinian camps while addressing organized crime that thrives in legal gray zones.

Germany Pledges Continued Support After UNIFIL Mission Ends

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier assured Lebanon that Germany will maintain support for the Lebanese government even after UNIFIL's mission concludes at the end of 2026, nearly five decades after deployment.
• Germany's navy is already training Lebanese troops as they boost their presence in southern Lebanon following the 14-month war that killed over 4,000 people in Lebanon and caused $11 billion in damage, according to the World Bank.
• President Aoun told Steinmeier that Lebanon "paid a high price" for the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and asked Germany to assume a "main role" after UNIFIL while pressuring Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanese territory.
• UNIFIL currently numbers about 7,500 peacekeepers, including 179 Germans tasked with preventing arms smuggling by sea and helping monitor Lebanon's maritime border.

What to watch: How Germany structures its post-UNIFIL commitment will signal whether international partners are prepared for long-term engagement beyond traditional peacekeeping mandates.

QUICK HITS

• Six plus fuel tax: The government approved 6 additional salaries for public sector employees and military personnel, funded by a 300,000 lira increase on gasoline and raising VAT from 11% to 12%—total cost: $800 million.
• Cairo prep meeting: The quintet committee will meet today at the Egyptian embassy to discuss a preparatory meeting in Cairo on February 24 ahead of the Paris army support conference on March 5.
• Electoral train rolling: Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar declared the parliamentary election "train has departed" according to current law, with any delays dependent solely on parliamentary action—not government decisions.
• KEL board appointed: The cabinet named new board members for Electricité du Liban including Wassif Hanini, Nassib Nasr, Joelle Chaker, Ola Blouz, Ali Brou, and Samer Husseini as the power sector seeks fresh leadership.
• Bahrain sends fifty: Kingdom of Bahrain will send 50 equipped housing units with solar panels to Tripoli families displaced by building collapses, as President Aoun coordinates regional aid efforts.

INTERNATIONAL

Iraq's Shiite Coalition Weighs Al-Maliki's Return as Prime Minister

• Iraq's Coordination Framework faces a decisive meeting this week to determine whether to nominate former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, with Kurdish mediation reportedly securing positive signals from the White House for his candidacy.
• Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, remains the primary opponent to al-Maliki's nomination within the Shiite coalition, while other parties explore consensus alternatives among six proposed candidates for the premiership.
• A comprehensive political deal is being negotiated to resolve disputes between Kurdish and Shiite forces, including the establishment of a Kurdish political council and agreement on Nizar Amidi's presidential nomination from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

The bigger picture: Iraq's government formation reflects broader regional realignments as traditional sectarian coalitions navigate new power dynamics amid shifting US priorities in the Middle East.

Israeli Prosecutors Move to Charge Settler in Palestinian Activist's Killing

• Israeli prosecutors announced plans to charge settler Yinon Levi with reckless homicide in the July killing of Palestinian activist Awdah Hathaleen, whose death was captured on video during a confrontation in the occupied West Bank.
• Hathaleen was featured in the 2025 Oscar-winning documentary "No Other Land," which chronicled Palestinian villagers' struggles, with attacks reportedly intensifying on the village since the film's recognition.
• The rare prosecution comes as Israel simultaneously resumed West Bank land registration processes requiring Palestinians to prove ownership, with rights groups warning the measure could strip generations of farmers from their land.
• Over 3.4 million Palestinians and 700,000 Israelis live in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories captured in 1967 and considered illegal settlements by the international community.

What to watch: Whether this prosecution signals a broader shift in Israeli enforcement against settler violence or remains an isolated case amid escalating tensions over land rights.

Saudi-EU Partnership Launches $2.4 Million Yemen Water Project

• Saudi Arabia's development program for Yemen and the European Union signed a strategic partnership agreement, with their first joint initiative being a SAR 9 million ($2.4 million) water security project in Marib governorate benefiting over 350,000 people.
• The partnership focuses on economic recovery programs, job creation, strengthening state institutions, and boosting community resilience in areas including food security, agriculture, electricity, and environmental sanitation across nine districts.
• The water project will cover Marib Al-Wadi, Marib City, and Harib districts, representing the first concrete outcome of the Saudi-EU alignment to improve livelihoods in war-torn Yemen.

Zooming out: The Saudi-EU collaboration reflects international efforts to stabilize Yemen through development rather than military intervention, potentially offering a model for post-conflict reconstruction elsewhere in the region.

GHER HEK

• Zaqaq's final curtain: Beirut's beloved independent theater closes after 20 years, having produced over 45 works and won international awards—but the creative spirit will continue in new spaces across the city.
• FIFA passport pickup: FIFA President Gianni Infantino officially received his Lebanese passport at Beirut's Interior Ministry, celebrating his citizenship alongside his Lebanese wife Lina al-Ashkar with a proud "I love Lebanon."
• Seventeen and sliding: Franco-Lebanese skier Andrea al-Hayek, just 17 years old, crashed out of his Olympic debut slalom in Italy but marked Lebanon's presence at the Winter Games alongside cross-country skier Samer Tawk.
• Swiss precision wins: Switzerland's Loïc Meillard claimed men's slalom gold at the Winter Olympics, outshining Austria's Fabio Gstrein and Norway's Henrik Kristoffersen on the challenging Stelvio slopes in heavy snowfall conditions.

Here's to the artists, athletes, and dreamers who keep the spirit alive—see you tomorrow.