🌳 Gold, Guns, and Gas

TOP STORIES

Lebanon Eyes Selling Gold Reserves to Rescue Banks

• Lebanon is considering selling part of its gold reserves as part of a broader plan to rescue the banking sector and stabilize the economy, according to the Financial Times—a move that would mark a dramatic shift in how the country manages its most prized financial asset.
• Lebanon holds one of the largest gold reserves per capita in the region, and the stash has long been considered politically untouchable, protected by a web of competing interests among politicians, central bank officials, and creditors.
• Any sale would require legislative approval and would likely be deeply contested—past attempts to discuss the gold have stalled in parliament almost immediately, reflecting how radioactive the topic remains across the political spectrum.

The backstory: Lebanon's financial system collapsed in 2019, wiping out depositors' savings and triggering one of the worst economic crises in modern history. The gold reserves—estimated at around 286 tonnes—have been floated as a potential recovery tool before, but no government has dared touch them.

Why it matters: If Lebanon moves forward with a gold sale, it would signal that a real restructuring deal is finally within reach—but it would also ignite a political firestorm that could derail the fragile reform momentum the new government is still trying to build.

Lebanese Army Pivots to Borders as Paris Donor Conference Looms

• The Lebanese army is redeploying units from internal security operations toward the borders—north, south, and east—as part of a political decision to consolidate weapons control and refocus on its core defense mandate ahead of a Quintet Committee donor conference in Paris on March 5.
• A preparatory meeting in Cairo will precede the Paris conference, with Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal and Internal Security Forces Director General Maj. Gen. Raed Abdallah both expected to attend and present a list of urgent needs.
• The Internal Security Forces, who are absorbing more domestic duties as the army pulls back, face critical shortages: ammunition stocks are low, many military vehicles are in poor condition, traffic units lack motorcycles, and police station budgets don't cover basic supplies.
• Soldier salaries have lost most of their real value due to the financial crisis, compounding a recruitment and retention problem that officials say must be addressed at the donor conference if the security transition is to succeed.

What to watch: Whether the Paris conference on March 5 delivers concrete, fast-disbursing funding—not just pledges—will determine whether the army can sustain this border-first posture without leaving a dangerous domestic security vacuum behind it.

Lebanon and Syria Are Quietly Feuding Over 1,011 Square Kilometers of Sea

• A detailed analysis by retired Brigadier General Khalil El Jumail reveals that Lebanon and Syria are disputing at least 1,011 square kilometers of Mediterranean waters, an area that may sit atop significant oil and gas reserves.
• The core disagreement is methodological: Lebanon uses the "equidistance/median line" principle accounting for islands like Ramkin off Tripoli, while Syria uses parallel latitude lines—a method with weaker standing in international maritime law.
• Syria has twice redrawn its offshore exploration blocks since 2007, and in 2021 awarded Block 1—which overlaps with two Lebanese blocks—to Russian firm Capital Limited, adding an international dimension to the dispute.
• Lebanon formalized its western maritime border with Cyprus in 2025, but its northern border with Syria remains unresolved, and no bilateral negotiations on the matter have been officially announced by either government.

The bigger picture: With Syria's new post-Assad government in flux and Lebanon's own offshore gas ambitions still largely unrealized, this maritime boundary dispute could either become a rare area of constructive bilateral negotiation—or another frozen conflict blocking billions in potential energy revenue for both countries.

QUICK HITS

• Berri's election bluff: Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed that Quintet Committee ambassadors told him directly they prefer postponing the parliamentary elections—but he's refusing, announcing he'll run anyway and daring anyone else to take the blame for a delay.
• 10 dead in the Bekaa: Israeli airstrikes near Rayak in northeastern Lebanon killed 10 people and wounded 24, including three children, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry—with Hezbollah confirming 8 of its members were among the dead, including three local commanders, per AP News.
• Prison time, overdue: Around 250 Islamist prisoners—93 Lebanese and 100 Syrian nationals—are demanding transitional justice, with protests in Beirut, Tripoli, and the Bekaa after a Lebanese-Syrian prisoner transfer deal left Lebanese detainees, some held for over 13 years without trial, feeling abandoned.
• Beirut goes to Geneva: Foreign Minister Youssef Raji is heading to Geneva Monday for the UN Human Rights Council's 61st session—Lebanon's first ministerial-level participation since 2015—where he'll push for international support on Israeli violations, Syrian refugee returns, and national sovereignty.
• Zero Hour on the border: Israel's naval and air forces struck Lebanon Friday in what Israeli officials describe as a preemptive "mowing the grass" operation—six fighter jets and a warship hitting Hezbollah missile units in the Bekaa simultaneously, timed explicitly to rising Iran tensions.

INTERNATIONAL

Mexico's Most Wanted Is Dead—And the Cartel Wars Are Just Beginning

• Mexican authorities killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho" and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, in a federal raid in the western state of Jalisco on Sunday morning, according to the Mexican government.
• The killing sparked violent clashes across Mexico as armed groups set fire to cars and buildings in the immediate aftermath, a predictable response to the elimination of a top cartel boss whose organization controls vast drug trafficking networks.
• Washington praised the operation, reflecting the US government's longstanding interest in dismantling the Jalisco cartel, which has been designated a priority target for American counter-narcotics agencies for years.

What to watch: The succession battle within the Jalisco New Generation Cartel will determine whether El Mencho's death destabilizes the organization into fragmented violence or whether a successor consolidates power quickly and restores operational order.

Western Leaders Are Courting Beijing—Because Washington Feels Unreliable

• A procession of Western leaders has visited Beijing in recent weeks—Canada's Mark Carney, Britain's Keir Starmer, and now German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—driven not by new enthusiasm for China but by a desire to hedge against an increasingly unpredictable United States, according to the New York Times.
• Germany's visit is particularly high-stakes: more than 1 million German jobs depend on exports to China, and Merz is attempting to preserve existing business relationships as Chinese firms steadily replace German competitors in global markets.
• China has not offered significant concessions to any visiting leader—Britain got permission for a new Chinese embassy in London, Canada lowered EV tariffs under a small quota—but the symbolism alone serves Beijing's domestic narrative of international strength and respect.
• China's domestic economy remains fragile, with a collapsing property market, sluggish consumer demand, and a sweeping military purge of generals that has left analysts uncertain whether its war-fighting capability has been strengthened or weakened.

The bigger picture: The rush to Beijing reflects a broader erosion of American credibility as a stable partner, a shift that is reshaping global alignments faster than any single trade deal or diplomatic statement can reverse.

Blackwater's Founder Is Now Selling AI Drone Swarms From Ukraine's Frontlines

• Erik Prince, founder of the defunct mercenary firm Blackwater, has joined Ukrainian drone startup Swarmer as non-executive chair, with the company filing for an IPO and citing more than 100,000 real-world combat missions completed since April 2024, according to The Guardian.
• Swarmer's AI-powered software enables pilots to control autonomous drone swarms, and the company is pitching the US Department of Defense and NATO allies on immediate investment in autonomous drone operations, at a moment when drones account for roughly 70% of all combat casualties in Ukraine.
• Prince is simultaneously reported to have recruited Ukrainian drone operators for deployment in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where his mercenaries are already operating, raising questions about the dual-use of battlefield technology and personnel developed in the Ukraine conflict.

Zooming out: Ukraine's war has become the world's live laboratory for autonomous weapons, and the race among private defense entrepreneurs to commercialize its battlefield lessons is accelerating the global proliferation of drone warfare technology well beyond Europe's borders.

GHER HEK

• Lebanon takes Berlin: Young Lebanese filmmaker Marie-Rose Osta won the Golden Bear for Best Short Film at the 76th Berlinale for "Yawman ma Walad" (Someday, A Child)—a story about a boy with supernatural powers who downs Israeli warplanes in his sleep. Lebanese cinema, loud and proud.
• USA ends 46-year drought: The US men's ice hockey team claimed Olympic gold at the Milan-Cortina Winter Games for the first time since 1980, defeating Canada in overtime after a match that went to 3-on-3—the first overtime format of its kind in Olympic gold medal history.
• Beirut fights cancer, together: The Beirut Breast Cancer Conference 2026, one of the first specialized oncology conferences in Lebanon and the Arab world, opened this month at the American University of Beirut, bringing together doctors and surgeons from Lebanon, the Arab world, and beyond to share the latest research and treatment guidelines.
• 800 years, one saint: The bones of St. Francis of Assisi went on rare public display for the first time since 1978, marking the 800th anniversary of his death—nearly 400,000 people have already registered for a time slot to see the remains of one of Christianity's most beloved saints.

Thanks for reading—see you tomorrow, inshallah.