🌳 Gold tumbles

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Gold Price Chaos Baffles Lebanese Jewelers and Market

• Gold prices fluctuated wildly this week, hovering at $5,000 per troy ounce after hitting highs of $5,595 and lows of $4,600, leaving Beirut jewelers unable to predict market movements or set stable pricing for customers.
• Simon Bouri, a decades-long veteran of Beirut's jewelry sector, described the unprecedented volatility as "crazy," asking incredulously whether anyone had seen 20 percent fluctuations in a single day before, with his commodity-trading colleague Aziz recalling only Chernobyl's wheat price shocks in 1986.
• Lebanese jewelers report slowed business as customers hesitate to buy at uncertain prices, with some declining purchases entirely due to fears that gold prices could drop 10-20 percent overnight, disrupting the traditional safe-haven investment Lebanese rely on.
• Trump's economic policies, dollar strength, Federal Reserve pressure, and geopolitical instability including threats against Iran are being cited as contributing factors, though analysts remain divided on root causes, with some speculating investor flight from overvalued assets while others see course correction.

Why it matters: Gold's volatility threatens Lebanon's traditional hedge against currency collapse and inflation, potentially destabilizing the savings strategy millions of Lebanese depend on during economic crisis.

Lebanon and Syria Sign Historic Prisoner Transfer Agreement

• Lebanon signed a landmark agreement with Syria to transfer over 300 sentenced prisoners to complete their sentences in Syrian facilities, with transfers expected to begin Saturday among approximately 2,500 total Syrian prisoners currently held in Lebanese jails.
• The agreement excludes prisoners convicted of "major crimes" including murder, fighting the Lebanese army, and rape unless they have already served 7.5 years in Lebanon, while most transferees were convicted of non-violent offenses rather than serious security violations.
• A separate treaty allowing transfer of Syrian prisoners awaiting trial requires Lebanese parliamentary ratification and will take significantly more time to implement, according to officials familiar with the negotiations between Beirut and Damascus.
• Both countries established a joint working group to investigate the fate of disappeared Lebanese citizens in Syria and Syrians who vanished in Lebanon, addressing decades-old cases from the Assad era when many Lebanese were believed imprisoned or killed in Syrian detention.

The bigger picture: This prisoner transfer reflects Lebanon's pragmatic approach to Syrian relations, addressing immediate humanitarian concerns while navigating the complex aftermath of regional political changes.

Fuel Price Increases Hit Lebanese Consumers Again

• Gasoline prices increased significantly today with 95-octane rising by 12,000 LBP and 98-octane climbing 15,000 LBP, while diesel jumped 22,000 LBP as gas cylinder prices remained stable at current levels.
• The new pricing structure sets 95-octane gasoline at 1,403,000 LBP ($15.64), 98-octane at 1,446,000 LBP ($16.12), diesel at 1,336,000 LBP ($14.90), and gas cylinders maintaining their 1,240,000 LBP ($13.83) price point.
• These increases compound transportation costs for Lebanese families already struggling with economic pressures, as fuel represents a major household expense given the country's unreliable electricity grid and dependence on private generators for power.

What to watch: Fuel price volatility will likely continue tracking global oil markets and dollar exchange rates, potentially triggering broader inflation across consumer goods and services.

QUICK HITS

• Egyptian Ambassador Reaffirms Support: Ambassador Alaa Moussa met President Aoun at Baabda Palace, confirming Egypt's commitment to the success of the Paris conference supporting Lebanese Armed Forces on March 5, while discussing Iranian-American negotiations and upcoming parliamentary elections.
• Severe Weather Warning Issued: Lebanon's meteorological department forecasted heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and snow at 2,000 meters elevation this weekend, with winds reaching 80 km/h in northern regions as temperatures drop to seasonal averages following recent mild conditions.
• Rotten Meat Warehouse Raided: Joint enforcement teams from the Economy Ministry and Tyre municipality discovered 150 kilograms of spoiled meat with foul odors in a warehouse violating basic hygiene standards, leading to seizure of contaminated products and facility closure with red wax seal.
• Maronite League Celebrates Heritage: League President Maroun el-Helou emphasized that Mar Maroun's Day represents Lebanon's foundational Christian identity and partnership principles, describing Bkerki as the guardian of Lebanon's constitutional formula based on shared power rather than dominance.
• Presidential Dialogue Continues: President Aoun's meeting with Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc chief Mohammed Raad generated positive atmospherics about future coordination, with Raad's post-meeting statement indicating readiness for cooperation while maintaining principles of sovereignty and national dignity.

INTERNATIONAL

Russian Military Intelligence Chief Shot in Moscow Assassination Attempt

• Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy chief of Russia's military intelligence agency GRU, was hospitalized after being shot multiple times by an unidentified assailant in northwest Moscow, with the suspect fleeing the scene immediately after the attack.
• Alekseyev played a crucial role negotiating with Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin during his brief 2023 mutiny and has overseen Russia's private military companies while facing US sanctions for alleged interference in the 2020 election.
• The shooting occurred one day after Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Abu Dhabi for peace talks, with some Russian officials immediately blaming Ukraine without evidence, calling it an attempt to derail diplomatic progress between the warring nations.
• President Putin is being briefed on the assassination attempt as security services investigate the incident, which follows a pattern of attacks on senior Russian military officials since the Ukraine invasion began, with Moscow consistently blaming Kyiv.

Zooming out: This attack highlights Russia's inability to protect key military personnel within its own borders, potentially undermining confidence in security services while escalating tensions.

High-Stakes Iran-US Nuclear Talks Begin in Oman

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff commenced critical talks in Muscat addressing Iran's nuclear program, with Araghchi emphasizing "mutual respect and equal standing" as prerequisites for any durable agreement.
• The negotiations follow months of escalating tensions after a 12-day Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025 that included US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, forcing a halt to uranium enrichment activities across the Islamic Republic's atomic program.
• Trump administration officials suggested the talks could expand beyond nuclear issues to include Iran's ballistic missile program, regional proxy support, and treatment of protesters, while Iranian officials insist discussions should focus exclusively on nuclear matters.
• Iran currently enriches uranium to 60 percent purity with a stockpile of approximately 9,870 kilograms, far exceeding the 2015 nuclear deal's 3.67 percent limit and 300-kilogram cap, as tensions persist following devastating protests and government crackdowns.

What to watch: Success hinges on whether both sides can move beyond maximalist positions, with Iran's domestic instability and Trump's military threats complicating diplomatic progress.

Canada and France Open Greenland Consulates Amid Trump Pressure

• Canada and France simultaneously opened diplomatic consulates in Greenland's capital Nuuk on Friday, demonstrating strong support for Danish sovereignty as Trump repeatedly threatens to seize control of the strategic Arctic territory.
• The consulate openings represent a "small step" in a broader European strategy to make Greenland's territorial integrity a shared Allied concern rather than solely a Danish-American dispute, according to security analysts monitoring Arctic geopolitics.
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced the consulate plan during a solidarity visit to Nuuk in June, while Canada's decision reflects growing recognition of Greenland's autonomous status under its 2009 Self-Government Act and desire for eventual independence from Denmark.
• The moves signal Allied pushback against Trump's aggressive territorial ambitions, with diplomatic experts noting that the consulates provide Greenland opportunities to practice independence while reducing exclusive dependence on Denmark for international relations.

The bigger picture: These diplomatic missions transform Trump's Greenland threats into a multilateral challenge, forcing Washington to confront organized European opposition rather than isolated Danish resistance.

GHER HEK

• Cedar Night Rocks Riyadh: Lebanese superstars Ragheb Alama, Assi El Helani, and Carol Samaha delivered a spectacular "Cedar Night" performance at Riyadh's Boulevard theater, showcasing Lebanese musical heritage to Saudi audiences during the city's entertainment season with tickets starting at 275 riyals.
• Bad Bunny Prepares Super Bowl Takeover: The Puerto Rican reggaeton superstar promises "a huge party" for Sunday's halftime show following his Grammy win for Best Album, despite political controversy and Trump's criticism, with the NFL commissioner defending the choice as featuring "one of the greatest artists in the world."
• New Gruffalo Adventure Coming: Julia Donaldson announced "Gruffalo Granny" will be published in September, marking the third installment in the beloved children's series after a 20-year gap, with illustrator Axel Scheffler returning to bring the deep dark wood's newest character to life.
• Milan Olympics Kick Off Tonight: The Winter Games open with unprecedented four-venue ceremonies across Northern Italy, featuring Mariah Carey, Andrea Bocelli, and Laura Pausini, as dual Olympic cauldrons will be lit simultaneously in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo for the first time in Olympic history.

Stay warm and keep that generator running—see you Monday.